This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Unlikely Push for Glory
A mere 60 days ago that the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or the source of Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains a particularly tough question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, while the positive results have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, they appear curiously susceptible – however currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge they must confront in the near future. Their key man, surely, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Could it be a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are due to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are rare in football and should be relished.